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Anton Ivanov, Konstantin Kazenin: The main risks of public safety in the North Caucasus (April - October 2011).

In the past six months there have been changes at the federal level, which will have a significant impact on both the natural social processes in general and on public safety in the North Caucasus ..

Report was prepared under the "humanitarian dialogue to enhance human security in the North Caucasus", implemented jointly "peacekeeping mission, named after General Lebed" (MMGL), "Swiss Peace Foundation" (swisspeace) and the "Forum on Early Warning and Early Response - Eurasia "(FEWER Eurasia) c 2006

overall situation

Over the past six months there have been changes at the federal level that have a significant impact on both the natural social processes in general and on public safety in the North Caucasus. The expected strengthening of vertical power can contribute to further polarization of society in Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia, and the consolidation of small, but it is relentless group of supporters of alternative Islamic state in the North Caucasus. The high probability of such a development is necessary to speak not only on the basis of analysis of the observed phenomena, additional impetus for such a scenario can be a great dissatisfaction of unjustified expectations of swift and significant changes, accumulated over the years. Despite some public enthusiasm associated with the implementation of the regional development strategy to 2025, investment in the Olympic construction in the southern federal district, the Interior Ministry reform and measures to combat corruption, it must be noted that the level of public satisfaction and trust in government in the North Caucasus not increased.

unfavorable foreign background also exerts some influence on the situation in the region. The most important global issues, such as a threat to the economic crisis, destabilization of the Middle East, in particular uncertainty about the outcome of the so-called "Arab spring" and the approach of a new peak of tension in Israeli-Palestinian conflict with the new role of Turkey - all contributing to atmosphere of uncertainty and threatens the most vulnerable region of Russia, already linked with the Islamic world by thousands of threads.

In anticipation of the State Duma elections on December 4 and subsequent presidential elections in March 2012, which will obviously be accompanied by an exacerbation of off-system control and power even more active response action of the State in the North Caucasus may decrease the level of public safety. But the natural deterioration election period, as well as seasonal variations in the level of violence, should not overshadow the main conflict dynamics - social disintegration associated with deepening the differences in value systems, social and cultural stratification and increased readiness of the representatives of different groups to defend their values.

Given the demographic characteristics of the North Caucasus, the redundancy of labor, the nature of migration, the phenomenon of generational change and a gradual increase in the influence of the representatives of that generation, whose socialization occurred during the Chechen wars and spiritual vacuum 1990 - x, we have to expect a complete change in the political landscape in the next 5-10 years. In the process of social transformation, clash of religious radicalism in the Russian government is almost inevitable. This opposition, in fact, already unfolding. The only question is to what configuration and what alliances will develop a crisis. But if it can not be prevented, at least, should be aware of the necessity to curb the severity of confrontation, the prevention of mass violence and other negative consequences for the population.

money and power - a line of federal policy is projected onto the North Caucasus without a clear unifying and eye-catching ideas that did not need to justify the intellectual and propaganda, and naturally would bring together people post-imperial space - used opposed to the unity of Russia in the region and beyond for their own gain. Financial resources are reallocated to support the development of alternative in the legal, ideological and spiritual sense of institutions in the North Caucasus. The use of military force and anti-partisan action has the opposite effect - to strengthen and expand support networks, decentralization, and other asymmetries in the tactics of thugs and enhance the mobilizing effect of radical ideology and the effectiveness of moral and psychological training of members of illegal armed groups. Feeling a fundamental disorder in the form of fuzzy land ownership and land disputes, unemployment and lack of professional education, the inability to realize a traditional way - through labor migration, and "seasonal work", a small business and trade, as well as in the religious sphere, the mobile part of the population in the region Hope directs toward the centers of power, alternative Russia. Most of the disaffected, but still identify themselves with Russian citizens choose the position of non-participation, disobedience or political conformism purely superficial reasons of personal safety.

Extremism

number of crimes related to the extremist underground, for the last six months in the Northern Caucasus have not diminished. Against the background of relative calm the situation in Ingushetia, as well as the fall in activity of extremists in Kabardino-Balkaria, after the action there CTO, there has been a new surge of extremist crime in Dagestan. A rigid system of government, built in Chechnya, also does not lead to the eradication of thugs in this region, whose existence in an interview with the media in October and was forced to admit the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov.

activity of extremists in Dagestan, indicates that their crimes are becoming more pronounced ideological. Dagestan retains top position among the regions of North Caucasus Federal District on the number of attacks on security forces: according to the Prosecutor General's Office, for the first eight months of 2011 in Dagestan was carried out 136 such attacks, in which killed 70 and injured 145 people. This is a struggle not only with security forces, but also with those who openly profess an ideology which is alien to the extremists. Since July 28, was killed in Makhachkala, Head of Press and Information Administration of the President of Dagestan Haroun Kurbanov, officer, repeatedly publicly opposed the religious radicals.

situation with the dialogue on extremism in recent months is ambiguous. On the one hand, in the summer in Dagestan stopped trying to organize public dialogue platforms, which were a discussion between representatives of different religious groups, including those targeted by radicals. Public figures to promote their organization, in the summer and autumn of 2011 stated that the work was curtailed due to changes in the position of the republican authorities. In an interview with the media in September said, for example, the chairman of the NGO "Civil Union of Daghestan" Suleiman settled. On the other hand, in the North Caucasus continue to work on committees to assist in adapting to civilian life those who have decided to stop the terrorist and extremist activities. The commission is still in force in Dagestan, where it was established in 2010 and the summer of 2011 a similar commission was set up in Ingushetia, decree of the head of the region, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov.

behalf of the Commission to adapt in terms of information have been at the forefront of peacekeeping operations in the North Caucasus: they are constantly told by the local media, the Internet, including social networks, and laid out widely discussed video from the meetings of these committees. It is also noteworthy that among the officials who serve the work of these committees, especially in Dagestan, a young, active people, focusing on productive work. However, these commissions are too vulnerable in the context of local politics. For example, the Dagestani Commission is closely connected with the coordinator of its work - first deputy prime minister of Dagestan Rizvan Kurbanov. Information about his possible departure to the State Duma after the parliamentary elections December 4 many in Dagestan was perceived as a threat to the future of the commission.

In these circumstances, it is extremely important that the lawyers, public figures and experts who support the work of commissions on adaptation have both advisory and methodological assistance. Need to form their view about the entire set of paths for public reconciliation of the variety of ways they could assist the State in these areas. The discussions among community activists in Dagestan in this area often have the character of "reinventing the wheel", the participants often seems that the problems faced in this area of Dagestan, are unique and not previously known to other regions of the world. In this context, it becomes extremely urgent task of training workshops for community members and, where possible, to the officials related to the work of adaptation, to familiarize the world with experience building civic harmony through dialogue and reconciliation, including those related to religious conflicts.

dialogue if it is a genuine attempt to listen to each other and move towards the interests and needs of others, is a versatile tool for transforming conflict into constructive relations procedures and decisions. Dialogue is not possible only with those who do not want to participate in it (for example, implacable terrorist groups). However, only isolating the irreconcilable by including representatives of all the rest of the spectrum of social forces in the dialogue, we can defeat separatism, and extremism. The former "irreconcilable," agreed to engage in dialogue, should be eligible for amnesty or leniency in the law (in the case of perpetration of a particularly serious crime). No matter how sharp and irreconcilable debate - they are still better than violence. Therefore, any attempt to restrict genuine dialogue, a misperception of him as a threat, the suppression of direct, open and honest channels to express discontent and opposition, as well as restrictions on legitimate non-violent public protests are counterproductive and dangerous. The absence of these channels leads to the transformation of energy discontent in an increasingly radical form, and eventually - in armed violence. The suppression of both spontaneous and organized crime, or purely political violence using illegal methods is a breeding ground for the ongoing indoctrination of the population extremists. In this case, as the experience of recent events, extremists simply replicate instances of arbitrariness, unfulfilled promises of amnesty, torture and religious discrimination, to ensure that their recruiting base is constantly replenished. As a result of their "strong army" continues to destabilize the region, despite the enormous effort and huge resources security officials, the federal government invested in stabilizing and strengthening security.

Relations Society with law enforcement authorities

in the relationship between society and law enforcement agencies was observed as the preservation of the old negative attitudes and mistrust of the population to the police, and the appearance of new negative trends. New trends have been associated primarily with the transformation of the police to the police, announced President Dmitry Medvedev, and certification of police officers, held in conjunction with that in the first half of 2011. This process has caused the inevitable tensions within the police and accompanied by resignations, scandals and criminal cases, have affected both the rank and file employees, officers and members of the leadership of the MVD. According to many experts and journalists, the process of re-certification in many cases become a hasty "cleaning staff on the contrary," which resulted in the honest and highly skilled professionals to survive, and corrupt officials remain within the system. As a result of this process emerged the phenomenon of greatly increased the public, first of all - rallies activity of law enforcement personnel, non-qualified. This activity is particularly high in Dagestan, where the leaders of the Independent Trade Union of the Interior Ministry and Prosecutor's Office, representing the interests of laid-off as a result of certification of security forces in recent years often led protest rallies over police action. There is a protest "spike" between relatives of citizens affected by the arbitrariness of law enforcement officers, and employees of those same authorities who found themselves out of business. This provides an additional perspective and can give impetus to the most radical forms of protest.

At the same time there are more and more incidents which have become a breeding ground for numerous conflicts between the police and youth groups. Often, these cases lead to the formation of a "spiral of violence." For example, on May 13 in the village Soviet Magaramkentskogo region of Dagestan was arrested and taken to the police a few dozen worshipers attending a local mosque. After his release, some of them have written statements complaining that it was used to violence. According to these statements by prosecution. Less than two months later, on July 9, was killed by the headmaster of the village Soviet, which, before his murder, the media reported the villagers opposed the Islamisation of young people. As noted by the experts Dagestan, killing it further exacerbated the situation in the village and increased tensions around the investigation of the May events.

The fact that "cooperation" of certain groups (ex-) law enforcement officers and representatives of other sectors of the population shows that the impenetrable social barriers between security forces and the "rest of the population" in the Northern Caucasus not formed. Necessary to facilitate a dialogue between law enforcement officers and other members of the public on topics not limited protests. In this regard it is of interest activities of public organizations in the republics of North Caucasus Federal District, in particular in Chechnya, which forge communication between young law enforcement officers and other representatives of the youth. This experience should be studied and applied in advanced mode.

migration and ethnic relations

threats related to inter-ethnic relationships, grow in today's North Caucasus in two directions. On the one hand, they relate to relationships between different ethnic groups in the Caucasus, on the other hand - the relationship Caucasians with residents of other regions of Russia.

property in the inter-ethnic relations vnutrikavkazskih any apparent negative dynamics in recent months was observed. However, it is this area is now under considerable pressure from external factors. For example, a negative role is played here by the Georgian government, which seems to employ brute force spikes to Pandora's box in the North Caucasus, provoking debate on the Circassian question, as well as the situation tsezov and other peoples of Dagestan.

situation is more complicated in its relations with the inhabitants of other regions of Russia. Caucasus-ray bursts in the Russian media, instigated after a series of resonant crimes, caused extremely negative reaction from the North, in particular - Dagestani society. Discussions on topics such as "business Mirzaev," "business Sviridov," "business Popov," etc. Media in the North Caucasus were not less active than in the federal mass media. In the course of these discussions is very clear to be seen as thinking, socially active severokavkaztsy more inclined to see the enemy in many federal journalists, directing federal TV channels, many State Duma deputies and public figures.

attempts to halt these trends have been doing. They mainly consist in the fact that in the North Caucasus, primarily Dagestan and leave a group of Russian social activists with another project "dialogue platforms" on which local people can discuss with the persons known as "Russian nationalists".


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