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Home  »  Russia  »  Politics

Turkmenistan and Belarus - the candidate for revolution.

In an exclusive interview with "Izvestiya" American political scientist made a prediction about which of the countries of the former Soviet Union is the closest candidate for the "color" revolution.

In the framework of the Russian Institute of Design "Russian Readings" leading member of the Fund's "Heritage", a famous American Sovietologist Ariel Cohen spoke in Moscow, a lecture on "U.S. - Russia: the evolution of relations over the past 20 years and prospects for the development of Russian-American relations. "

news: Is it possible cooperation between Russia and the United States to resolve the situation in Kyrgyzstan and in the long run - the entire post-Soviet space?

Ariel Cohen: The Russian leadership has already learned lessons from the events in Ukraine and Georgia. Regimes that were dropped, exhausted the supply of confidence. The same thing happened in Kyrgyzstan. So what happened was minimal relevance to the Russian-American geopolitics - the revolution is not aimed against Russia.

If the U.S. took place "the champion of democracy" in the world, why Russia should not try to take this niche, using a creative approach to post-Soviet space. We need to agree on what is acceptable parameters of political regimes and systems, how the political system within those who are most apparent wrongdoing standards (which, according to statements made by Russia, it also supports): the democratic choice of government, quiet work of the media. Russia and the United States has long been able to engage in dialogue and joint action to spread democracy in the former Soviet Union. Such opportunities were, incidentally, lost to Turkmenistan and Belarus.

news: Forever?

Cohen: Turkmenistan, of course, a candidate for a revolution because of the inhuman clamping carried out the regime of Turkmenbashi. But in Turkmenistan, Russia its gas interests. And the interests of all partners should be taken into account and do not repeat the mistakes of Iraq. Such a dictator, like Lukashenko, not seen in the XXI century, neither the U.S. nor the EU. Already obrydl not only Belarusian elite, but also increasingly hampered by Moscow - he did not manage. He was a great desire to be president even if isolated, but an independent Belarus, as the acting Russian nadsmotrschika in Belarus.

The question is, how his regime could be changed. There is a certain segment of the population that supports it - this is the layer, which in Russia voted for the Communists and Zhirinovsky. An educated urban elite do not. How it actually supports the power structure? In Kyrgyzstan, in Georgia, Ukraine, the people did not shoot anybody.

Russia can be a leader in this process, and can be guided. It is a question of political will and political skill. If this is all utryasaetsya and combined with the EU and the U.S., I see a quick, smooth, and may not be a bloody process of building democracy in Belarus. If this does not happen, Lukashenko can finish very badly - for example, as Milosevic. The killings of opposition leaders will hang on it.

news: Can a revolution at the nearest neighbor, Kyrgyzstan - Kazakhstan?

Cohen: Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan clearly directs the evolutionary path. To what extent this can be him and the people of Kazakhstan, depends on the policies of Nazarbayev's policy and its opposition. So far, the opposition split, rather than uniting. It has no clear leader. In addition, there is a high standard of living - especially in those places, much of which depends in Almaty, Astana. The very same Kazakh leadership is very flexible and pragmatic.

News: How seriously the U.S. and EU are working with Russian non-governmental organizations? And whether Russia is able to quickly and effectively to work with NGOs in the CIS countries?

Cohen: Russia has no modern model of working with NGOs abroad. The reason - and the lack of money, and no special skills. Our work with Russian NGOs were particularly active in 1990 and continues to be now, but with regard to funds, today the U.S. State Department provides funding for work in the Muslim world. Throughout the post-Soviet space, including in Russia, there is a reduction in appropriations. For example, the Ukraine Congress three times urezal appropriations requested by the Bush administration in support of Yushchenko's government. Russian business, by the way, with their interests in the CIS countries may begin to cooperate with NGOs in the former Soviet Union. But, unfortunately, the business takes up more pragmatic approach - cheaper to buy an official, than to build a program with a long sight.

News: What are the key mistakes in Russia and the U.S. in the post-Soviet space?

Cohen: Russia seriously perceived opposition, and in Georgia and Ukraine are attributed, secular, educated in the Soviet Union and speak Russian. And they can for it to take offense. In addition, they are perceived as younger brothers, which can be built, but they do not want to build. They want to be presidents, ministers, ambassadors, not secretaries raykoma, or even secretaries of the local Central Committee. We need to restructure the brain, to treat them as representatives of the neighboring, but independent states. And when the fracture occurs in the minds of Russian officials and the elite, then everything will be forged. This has been and with the Baltic countries, which in Russia in 1990 for some time ignored the countries of Eastern Europe. Those times have passed, but the price issue has proved to their entry into NATO and the EU. Maybe you need to wait for Georgia to join NATO and the EU?

Now error America. In the United States - is not a mistake, and the high expectations that can lead to frustration. I thought that since the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia will be very good and very fast, but there are structural problems - corruption, political culture, serious economic problems. The establishment of the situation will take years, and enough patience to see if the Georgians, I do not know. In Kyrgyzstan, will be even more difficult.

news: The U.S. patience last?

Cohen: I hope, be enough. You can not expect instant results.

Joke of the topic:

In the elections the overwhelming majority of the population were in favor of President Lukashenko. A suppressed - against

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