Until a few years ago, the local currency is called В«woodВ», giving preference to the U.S. dollar, in which Russians have traditionally preferred to keep their savings. But, it seems, the situation has changed: the ruble strengthened, and the dollar is already the most radical, experts are trying to glue the label В«woodВ», feeling pessimistic about its future.
It seems so long ago the dollar gave 30 rubles, and now at the last auction, despite the efforts of the Central Bank, he slipped up to 28.87 rubles.
even more impressed by the weakening position of the dollar against the euro - 1,28:1 than seriously concerned by the EU.
Because the world of finance was not happy when a neighbor burns roof: in the global economy are so intertwined that the excessive strengthening of the euro has affected the competitiveness of a number of leading European states.
Based on these considerations, Central Bank of Russia strongly supports slabeyuschie dollars, buying them at auction in an effort to prevent an excessive strengthening of the ruble. However, such a policy could lead to higher inflation than planned, the Russian government in 2004 - 10%. In fact, to В«sterilizeВ» (a term coined in the bowels of the Central Bank of Russia) dollars, including and the origin of oil, will vneplanovo run printing press. However, in the fall of the U.S. currency has obvious benefits, it is planned to take advantage of the Russian government. This early extinguishment of external debt.
same population, which for various reasons have В«not droppedВ» savings in dollars, worrying question: whether В«bucksВ» prospect of stabilization or even increase? Prognosis is very controversial.
The truth is that the U.S. economy is in crisis, its trade and current account deficits to reach 500 billion dollars each. To cover the deficit, the U.S. must bring about a monthly $ 50 billion, and succeed - no more than 5 billion
That is, there is the collapse of the U.S. debt market, which shows confidence in the poshatnuvshemsya В«bucksВ» and re-marked many of the leading countries in other currencies and В«valuesВ» - gold. Experts believe that by the end of 2004 the dollar will cost 25-26 rubles (but without the support of the euro rising, it will decrease, perhaps even up to 23 rubles). Next: the growth of the euro relative to the U.S. to expire, and it is possible that the spring European currency in the Russian market starts to fall at the same speed as the В«BaksВ» last year.
Hence conclusions: according to experts Center macroeconomic research, the most revenue to its owners (including the annual deposits) are likely to bring ruble deposits. Contributions to the euro, as the most risky, may be nizkodohodnymi. A U.S. - if the amount is small and you do not want to invest for the long term (and keep them under their pillow - even stupid) - to better allow for the purchase of needed goods in the house.